Friday, October 22, 2004

Why Pennsylvania?

Bush was in the area last night. He'll be back again in a day or two. Why is he spending so much time in a state that, though close, is clearly leaning toward Kerry, and firming up in the "blue" category with each poll?

Bush, when he comes here, rarely strays from his safe base counties. He energizes the troops, but he doesn't pull in undecideds.

Here's a theory suggested by someone here who knows a bit about national politics: Every time Bush puts in an appearance here, Kerry has to respond. That keeps the Democrats' big guns focused on Pennsylvania, and means less time they can spend in Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, etc. The Republicans, with more of a travel budget, can get around to other spots more easily, while the Democrats have to devote precious money and time to keeping Pennsylvania on their side.

Bush won't win Pennsylvania, and he probably knows it. But his repeated forays here may be a strategic, draw-off of Democratic electoral energy.