Straight Talk

Praktike says, "Let me put the matter as bluntly as I can."

The Palestinians are going to lose half of the West Bank unless they embrace nonviolence and mobilize the majority of Israelis who do want peace but only if there see a viable partner on the other side. As Arab journalist Hisham Melham puts it, Israel is a fact of life in the modern Middle East, and the sooner enough Palestinians come to terms with that such that non-irredentist Israelis feel secure enough to marginalize the settler movement completely, the better off they will be in the long run. Violence from the Palestinian side only perpetuates the conflict, while the settlements continue apace. Palestinians tend to believe that their moral legitimacy comes from their historical grievance itself; but this is not how most Americans and Israelis see matters, tending to view actions such as shooting rockets as undermining the cause altogether. This may not seem "fair," but it's reality. The truth is that Arafat rejected the best offer he was going to get. The Palestinian intifada has been a complete disaster for the Palestinians that has brought in Sharon and significantly reduced the percentage of land they might get if there is ever to be a final settlement. The Gaza disengagement is an anomaly and should not be construed by the Palestinians as a "success" for violence. Abbas, I think, gets this dynamic for the most part, though he is hanging on to unrealistic fantasies about the right of return. Whether he is doing so because it's one of his few chips or because he's not politically strong enough to do otherwise remains to be seen.