Democrats: The Other French
Transatlantic Trends 2004 is a public opinion survey undertaken annually by the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Turin-based Compagnia di San Paolo. In June, the group polled 11,000 Americans and Europeans on issues of common concern. This is the third year for the survey, which gives it some basis for seeing trends.
The poll, released Sept. 9, is a rich lode of statistics. The poll sponsors conclude that it shows that the deterioration in European-American relations has "hardened over the last year, confirming a fundamental change in transatlantic relations may be underway." Not surprisingly, to anyone who's read the European chat sites, 76% of Europeans disapprove of U.S. foreign policy, an increase of 20 percentage points over the past two years.
In analyzing American public opinion and comparing it across the pond, the report finds that those who sarcastically accuse John Kerry of being "French" actually have a point: "Democrats are more closely aligned with majority European views than are Republicans."
On the topic of Bush's foreign policy, for instance, French and Kerry backers are in near exact agreement: 86% of French disapprove, and 88% of Kerry backers disapprove.
To the question, was overthrowing Saddam worth the cost, yes or no, in the U.S. overall the percentage split was 44 (yes) to 50 (no). In France, the split was 8-89; among Kerry backers, it was 9-87. Bush supporters said "yes" by a factor of 80-16.
Is U.N. approval "essential" before any use of military force? In France, 86% said "yes," as did 83% of Kerry supporters. Among Bush backers, only 29% said so.
In some cases American Democrats are more "French" than the French. When it comes to the U.N., 67% of French had a "very favorable" or "mostly favorable" opinion of the organization; 79% of Kerry supporters did. Only 45 percent of Bush supporters did.
On some issues, however, U.S. voters, however far apart, were closer to one another than to their Europeans counterparts. To the statement, "Under some conditions, war is necessary to obtain justice," in France, only 33% agreed. This is opposed to 73% of likely Kerry voters and 91% of likely Bush voters who agreed with that.
It only confirms the obvious, but Democrats are now the more isolationist party of the two. In answer to the question, "Do you think it will be best for the future of the United States if we take an active part in world affairs or if we stay out of world affairs?" Some 85% of Bush supporters preferred an active role; 15% more than the 70% of Kerry backers who said so.
Some 63% of Democrats disapprove of U.S. troops in Iraq, while 83% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve.
Here's a tid-bit that may interest those who think "blood for oil" is an American peculiarity: the survey asked people if they would approve of the use of their nation's military force "to ensure the supply of oil:" in the U.S., 44 percent did, but in France 50 percent did.
The survey also neatly identified the "undecideds" in this election:
One of the interesting conclusions to emerge is that Europeans want their continent to be more independent of the U.S. when it comes to world politics, while Americans look toward Europe as their preferred partner for resolving global issues. Specifically, 60% of Americans believe the partnership between the U.S. and E.U. should become closer, while 58% of Europeans believe the E.U. should take a more independent line in security and diplomatic affairs.
(Or, as Protein Wisdom puts it: Democrats to Europeans: “love us as we love you, sweet Mother Europe, for we, too, are educated and luxuriate in nuance.” Europe to Americans: “go choke on a Big Mac, you obese Yankee morons.")
In the "you've got to pay to play" department, 71% of Europeans believe the EU should become a superpower like the U.S., but 47% of those that agree with this statement dropped their support if doing so would costs more money.
Craig Kennedy, President of the German Marshall Fund, said the trends, if they continue, could end in “a redefinition of the fundamentals of the transatlantic relationship from a first-choice partnership to an optional alliance when mutually convenient.”
Americans and Europeans agree on the big threats: terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But they sharply differ on how to handle them. Americans are more willing to use military force and to act without an international mandate. Europeans require an international mandate for military action.
[The European data came from 10 nations: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey.]
The poll, released Sept. 9, is a rich lode of statistics. The poll sponsors conclude that it shows that the deterioration in European-American relations has "hardened over the last year, confirming a fundamental change in transatlantic relations may be underway." Not surprisingly, to anyone who's read the European chat sites, 76% of Europeans disapprove of U.S. foreign policy, an increase of 20 percentage points over the past two years.
In analyzing American public opinion and comparing it across the pond, the report finds that those who sarcastically accuse John Kerry of being "French" actually have a point: "Democrats are more closely aligned with majority European views than are Republicans."
On the topic of Bush's foreign policy, for instance, French and Kerry backers are in near exact agreement: 86% of French disapprove, and 88% of Kerry backers disapprove.
To the question, was overthrowing Saddam worth the cost, yes or no, in the U.S. overall the percentage split was 44 (yes) to 50 (no). In France, the split was 8-89; among Kerry backers, it was 9-87. Bush supporters said "yes" by a factor of 80-16.
Is U.N. approval "essential" before any use of military force? In France, 86% said "yes," as did 83% of Kerry supporters. Among Bush backers, only 29% said so.
In some cases American Democrats are more "French" than the French. When it comes to the U.N., 67% of French had a "very favorable" or "mostly favorable" opinion of the organization; 79% of Kerry supporters did. Only 45 percent of Bush supporters did.
On some issues, however, U.S. voters, however far apart, were closer to one another than to their Europeans counterparts. To the statement, "Under some conditions, war is necessary to obtain justice," in France, only 33% agreed. This is opposed to 73% of likely Kerry voters and 91% of likely Bush voters who agreed with that.
It only confirms the obvious, but Democrats are now the more isolationist party of the two. In answer to the question, "Do you think it will be best for the future of the United States if we take an active part in world affairs or if we stay out of world affairs?" Some 85% of Bush supporters preferred an active role; 15% more than the 70% of Kerry backers who said so.
Some 63% of Democrats disapprove of U.S. troops in Iraq, while 83% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve.
Here's a tid-bit that may interest those who think "blood for oil" is an American peculiarity: the survey asked people if they would approve of the use of their nation's military force "to ensure the supply of oil:" in the U.S., 44 percent did, but in France 50 percent did.
The survey also neatly identified the "undecideds" in this election:
Independents resemble Democrats in their support of EU leadership in world affairs; desire to see a closer U.S.-EU partnership, and warmth toward the EU. They are similar to Republicans in their support of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and willingness to bypass the UN on vital interests. Independents are divided on Bush’s foreign policy and the role of military power.
One of the interesting conclusions to emerge is that Europeans want their continent to be more independent of the U.S. when it comes to world politics, while Americans look toward Europe as their preferred partner for resolving global issues. Specifically, 60% of Americans believe the partnership between the U.S. and E.U. should become closer, while 58% of Europeans believe the E.U. should take a more independent line in security and diplomatic affairs.
(Or, as Protein Wisdom puts it: Democrats to Europeans: “love us as we love you, sweet Mother Europe, for we, too, are educated and luxuriate in nuance.” Europe to Americans: “go choke on a Big Mac, you obese Yankee morons.")
In the "you've got to pay to play" department, 71% of Europeans believe the EU should become a superpower like the U.S., but 47% of those that agree with this statement dropped their support if doing so would costs more money.
Craig Kennedy, President of the German Marshall Fund, said the trends, if they continue, could end in “a redefinition of the fundamentals of the transatlantic relationship from a first-choice partnership to an optional alliance when mutually convenient.”
Americans and Europeans agree on the big threats: terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. But they sharply differ on how to handle them. Americans are more willing to use military force and to act without an international mandate. Europeans require an international mandate for military action.
[The European data came from 10 nations: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey.]
Labels: Democrats, Europe, Iraq, polls, Transatlantic Trends
