The "Don't Blame Me" Vote
Heads explode all over the blogosphere, as pundits ponder the polls. Eighty or 90 percent of voters are locked in to a candidate, but what's with that other 10 percent or so that keeps sloshing around like a bowl of soup in a storm-bound sailing ship?
Here's my guess. They're the "Don't Blame Me" vote. They sense that whoever wins this one is likely to do plenty of bone-headed things the next four years. What they're hoping for, whether they know it or not, is to vote for the guy who finishes second. That way, come what may, they can drive around with one of those "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For _____" bumper stickers.
[Voting for Nader is not an option. As we learned four years ago, in a close election it's a one-way ticket to Contemptville, and the goal of the "Don't Blame Me" voter is to say he did his civic duty yet had no hand in making the current mess.]
Who are these people? They watched starry-eyed liberals buy into Bill Clinton's hope for a better America, and watched as the same people of high principles had to grit their teeth and defend him as his presidency degenerated into a vaudeville act.
They watched committed conservatives rally for Bush, only to see them grit their teeth and pronounce their continued loyalty to him as he shattered one cherished conservative ideal after another.
They know that Kerry is going to have to mightily piss off half his supporters to fight a muscular war on terror; they know he's going to go to Europe looking for help and get his sorry ass laughed at. And they know that, even if Bush does something they agree with, he's going to do in an Inspector Clouseau style that will make them sorry they asked for it.
This theory dovetails with the one that says whoever is leading in the polls this week actually has a disadvantage come Tuesday, because people don't like either candidate and the one who is getting the most attention will also be, unintentionally, broadcasting the things people don't like about him.
Here's my guess. They're the "Don't Blame Me" vote. They sense that whoever wins this one is likely to do plenty of bone-headed things the next four years. What they're hoping for, whether they know it or not, is to vote for the guy who finishes second. That way, come what may, they can drive around with one of those "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For _____" bumper stickers.
[Voting for Nader is not an option. As we learned four years ago, in a close election it's a one-way ticket to Contemptville, and the goal of the "Don't Blame Me" voter is to say he did his civic duty yet had no hand in making the current mess.]
Who are these people? They watched starry-eyed liberals buy into Bill Clinton's hope for a better America, and watched as the same people of high principles had to grit their teeth and defend him as his presidency degenerated into a vaudeville act.
They watched committed conservatives rally for Bush, only to see them grit their teeth and pronounce their continued loyalty to him as he shattered one cherished conservative ideal after another.
They know that Kerry is going to have to mightily piss off half his supporters to fight a muscular war on terror; they know he's going to go to Europe looking for help and get his sorry ass laughed at. And they know that, even if Bush does something they agree with, he's going to do in an Inspector Clouseau style that will make them sorry they asked for it.
This theory dovetails with the one that says whoever is leading in the polls this week actually has a disadvantage come Tuesday, because people don't like either candidate and the one who is getting the most attention will also be, unintentionally, broadcasting the things people don't like about him.
