Election Prediction
First, the ones almost everyone agrees on:
For Bush: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming.
For Kerry: California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.
Of the nine states up in the air, I see Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada going for Bush.
I think Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii and Florida will end up in Kerry's column.
Ohio I can't even pretend to predict at this point, but if the rest of this holds up, it won't matter. Kerry has 273 votes.
I was predicting a Kerry win about a week ago. I haven't changed that forecast. Of course, a major October surprise (including chaos following the death of Arafat) could change my guess. But I'm penciling in Kerry.
After computing this, I checked out blog-friend MDL, who has cast his own prediction, and found out that, though we differed on a couple of states, he has Kerry with a 274-electoral-vote win. He grants himself multiple guesses, however, and comes down on several sides of an answer. Is that what they mean by multilateralism? Or is that de rigueur on the global test?
For Bush: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming.
For Kerry: California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.
Of the nine states up in the air, I see Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada going for Bush.
I think Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii and Florida will end up in Kerry's column.
Ohio I can't even pretend to predict at this point, but if the rest of this holds up, it won't matter. Kerry has 273 votes.
I was predicting a Kerry win about a week ago. I haven't changed that forecast. Of course, a major October surprise (including chaos following the death of Arafat) could change my guess. But I'm penciling in Kerry.
After computing this, I checked out blog-friend MDL, who has cast his own prediction, and found out that, though we differed on a couple of states, he has Kerry with a 274-electoral-vote win. He grants himself multiple guesses, however, and comes down on several sides of an answer. Is that what they mean by multilateralism? Or is that de rigueur on the global test?
