Thursday, March 30, 2006

News Tip

As things get seriously wobbly in Iraq, keep your eye on the writing of Bill Roggio. He says the political process, so far from being the dead fish it's taken for in much of the media here, is where the crucial action is taking place.

Abdul Mahdi is positioning himself as the law-and-order candidate, and has the backing of the U.S. government as well as the approval of the Sunni, Kurdish and secular Shiite parties. He has the ability to create the unity government. Listen to Sistani's statements. Watch SCIRI's actions. Sadr is being equated as the kingmaker, but in reality SCIRI holds the power to make or break the next prime minister.

Fox News apparently (I don't watch TV) has been running some script or something pondering whether a civil war is a desirable outcome at this point. I can't see any way it would be but one: If it comes on fast and results in Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and secular and conservative Shi'ites more or less ganging up on al-Sadr and his thug army and putting them out of the picture once and for all.