Global Warming Warning?
Der Spiegel offers this article from Salon, thereby avoiding all the Salon subscriptino nonsense.
The article is frankly a bit confusing. The top of it seems to be an explanation of how global warming makes for more and bigger hurricanes. But after you read past that, it becomes clear the scientist is talking about what's going to happen if the warming trend continues: "So, as global warming increases, expect hurricanes to get stronger."
And in the article's back nine, Emanuel explains that there's a natural cycle at work here.
And by the time you get to the very tail of it, Emanuel is saying, "But it doesn't have much to do with global warming." Gee, you'd never guess that was coming from the way Salon started it.
Oh, well. At least you can still blame the housing industry and corporate lobbyists for it. That should make everyone at Salon feel a whole lot better.
See? It's all still Shrubbie McChimplerburton's fault.
Sort of like they told us America was going to fail in Iraq because:
1. Saddam's army was too strong.
2. Saddam would use nukes on us.
3. The Iranians would invade.
4. The Kurds would fight the Turks.
5. There would be millions of refugees.
6. There would be massive epidemics.
7. The oil wells would burn.
8. There would never be an attempt at democracy.
9. The people wouldn't vote in elections.
10. We can't disband the Iraqi army.
11. We can't not disband the Iraqi Army.
And now, when Saddam's army has been swept aside like cobwebs, the dictator languishes in jail, the cry now is about lack of WMD, a new army slowly is rising up, and Iraqis are fixing their unburned oil wells and debating the future shape of their constitution in a democratically elected assembly, these folks want to stand up and shout we told you so!
Katrina is just the latest in a rash of powerful hurricanes that have been pummeling the Atlantic in recent years, including a record-breaking 33 between 1995 and 1999. It's made many wonder if global warming is bringing the wrath of the planet down upon all our heads. Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has studied historical records of hurricanes around the globe, said the answer is yes and no.
In a recent paper, "Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones Over the Past 30 Years," published in the science journal Nature, Emanuel found that as sea temperatures rise, the duration and intensity of hurricanes are going up, too.
The article is frankly a bit confusing. The top of it seems to be an explanation of how global warming makes for more and bigger hurricanes. But after you read past that, it becomes clear the scientist is talking about what's going to happen if the warming trend continues: "So, as global warming increases, expect hurricanes to get stronger."
And in the article's back nine, Emanuel explains that there's a natural cycle at work here.
However, that doesn't mean, as some perceive, that there are actually more of them lately. "When we looked at the historical record, we found that the frequency of storms globally hasn't really changed at all," Emanuel said. "It's about 90 per year, plus or minus 10. The frequency globally appears to be steady."
The recent hurricanes in the Atlantic, Emanuel explained, represent a natural fluctuation. Every 20 to 30 years, since records started being kept in the 19th century, there have been big shifts in the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic. "For example, in the 1940s and '50s, there were very busy years, whereas the 1970s and '80s were very quiet years," he said. "And we've had a big upswing in the Atlantic beginning in about 1995. That's all natural."
The reason violent Atlantic hurricanes like Katrina may strike people as unnatural, and cause them to blame the CO2 pouring out of their neighbors' Hummers, is not because of their frequency but their destruction to people and places.
"This natural fluctuation occurs in a social environment where there is a huge shift in demographic trends, and this makes a big difference in people's perception," Emanuel said. "In the 1940s and '50s, there were lots of hurricanes in Florida, but there weren't lots of people there. So now that we're having this upswing again, it's being perceived very differently" -- for the simple fact that there is a lot more stuff to be ruined.
And by the time you get to the very tail of it, Emanuel is saying, "But it doesn't have much to do with global warming." Gee, you'd never guess that was coming from the way Salon started it.
To Emanuel, Katrina is not an unusual hurricane. "Not that many hurricanes get that powerful, but we've had hurricanes like Katrina before," he said. "Camille was about the same strength. Andrew was about the same strength. Katrina was just unfortunate, because it happened to hit a very densely populated area."
Oh, well. At least you can still blame the housing industry and corporate lobbyists for it. That should make everyone at Salon feel a whole lot better.
Ultimately, Emanuel said, it's not a vengeful Mother Nature but man's politics that are to blame for the destruction. As long as people insist on erecting homes and businesses, aided by low insurance rates and business lobbyists, in vulnerable areas like the Gulf Coast, there's little scientists can do to prevent the havoc.
See? It's all still Shrubbie McChimplerburton's fault.
Sort of like they told us America was going to fail in Iraq because:
1. Saddam's army was too strong.
2. Saddam would use nukes on us.
3. The Iranians would invade.
4. The Kurds would fight the Turks.
5. There would be millions of refugees.
6. There would be massive epidemics.
7. The oil wells would burn.
8. There would never be an attempt at democracy.
9. The people wouldn't vote in elections.
10. We can't disband the Iraqi army.
11. We can't not disband the Iraqi Army.
And now, when Saddam's army has been swept aside like cobwebs, the dictator languishes in jail, the cry now is about lack of WMD, a new army slowly is rising up, and Iraqis are fixing their unburned oil wells and debating the future shape of their constitution in a democratically elected assembly, these folks want to stand up and shout we told you so!
